Mavericks and Lakers: What Now?

Both the Lakers and Mavericks were unspectacularly dumped from the playoffs and have some pretty serious rebuilding issues. So now what?With some teams sitting at home as a result of playoff exits they may feel are earlier than expected, certain franchises’ respective front offices, players, and fans are asking themselves a common question: What do we do now? Two teams trying to find the answer to these questions happen to be the two recent defending NBA Champions, the Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Lakers.

Dallas Mavericks
2011-12 Record: 36-30, 7th in West
Playoff Result: 4-0 loss to Oklahoma City in Round 1

A year after defeating the Thunder in the Western Conference Finals en route to the franchise’s first NBA Championship, Mark Cuban and Co. face the prospect of rebuilding their team. Dallas is likely losing its two best players in the backcourt, Jason Kidd and Jason Terry, to free agency. Few expect the team to resign either one to a deal as a result of age. A group of expiring smaller deals—belonging to Ian Mahinmi, Delonte West, Brian Cardinal, and Yi Jianlian—will hurt Dallas’ depth, as Mahinmi is the only player expected to be resigned. The departure of the artist formerly known as Lamar Odom, before his mental breakdown and disengaged attitude toward basketball, leaves the Mavericks with eight players on the roster heading into this offseason.

Unfortunately, these eight players consist of older players in the twilight of their career—Shawn Marion, Vince Carter—one overpaid black hole at the center spot—Brendan Haywood—as well as younger players who occupy a roster spot for that sole purpose alone, and are not viable options on the court, such as Kelenna Azubuike, Dominique Jones, and Brandan Wright. The only exceptions of this group are Dirk Nowitzki, still performing well after posting 21.6 ppg this season, and backup guard Rodrigue Beaubois, who scored 8.9 ppg and handed out 2.9 apg in an average of only 21.9 minutes per contest.

Fortunately, the Mavs’ situation looks pretty solid from a financial standpoint in terms of the ability to change their roster and bring in players that can re-tool the squad for another run at a championship while Dirk plays out his prime and is still an elite player at the power forward position. With the expiring contracts of Terry and Kidd, Odom’s salary coming off the cap, the ability to amnesty Brendan Haywood’s horrendous deal, and the rest of the expiring deals, Cuban’s front office will have roughly $25 million to play with in this upcoming offseason.

So with all this money, what will Cuban and GM Donnie Nelson do with it?

To start, the team needs a new point guard, and the talk of the town is the hopes of signing Deron Williams in free agency. I do not know if I see this happening. There are a lot of hoops that need be jumped through for such a thing to happen. First and foremost, Williams would need to decline his player option for next season. Second, if the Nets land a top-three pick in this year’s draft, that would likely be sent to the Magic in a deal to acquire Dwight Howard. But, the Nets finished with the sixth-worst record in the league this year, and it is unlikely they will receive a top-three slot and if the pick is lower than third, it gets sent to the Portland Trail Blazers as a condition of the deal that netted Brooklyn Gerald Wallace.

A more realistic option is actually Steve Nash. He is an unrestricted free agent, and I could see him taking one last shot at a title in the city he began his career in alongside his old friend and running mate, Nowitzki. Plus, he would come much cheaper than Williams will, who will likely command close to maximum-money as one of the league’s best point guards in the prime of his career.

Also in the backcourt, the Mavs could look for someone to replace Terry’s scoring prowess. A candidate here is Nick Young, an unrestricted free agent, barring that he does not re-sign with the LA Clippers. In the paint, Nowitzki needs some help, and there are some interesting names that the front office could attract to Dallas such as Kevin Garnett, Chris Kaman, and Kris Humphries.

Los Angeles Lakers
2011-12 record: 41-25, 1st in Pacific Division, 3rd in West
Playoff Result: 4-1 loss to Oklahoma City in Semi-final

Unlike the Mavericks, the Lakers have very little to no flexibility in terms of finances. The only players coming off the books are Matt Barnes, Devin Ebanks, Troy Murphy, Jordan Hill, Darius Morris, and possibly Ramon Sessions if he declines his player option. Many expect the Lakers to re-sign Hill and Ebanks as well as for Sessions to pick up his option. So, the money coming off the Lakers’ cap number will amount to pocket change and LA will still be light years above the NBA’s luxury tax number.

So, if the Lakers really want to rebuild and put together another contender, here is what they should do: decline Andrew Bynum’s team option, trade Pau Gasol, and use the amnesty clause on Kobe Bryant. That frees up roughly $55 million in cap space and will put the Lakers $25 million under the salary cap, giving Mitch Kupchak plenty of money to throw at the likes of Deron Williams, Roy Hibbert, Eric Gordon, and other big name players on the free agent market.

Alas, there is no way in any one of the Seven Hells that that scenario will pan out in reality, so the Lakers are left to work with what they have.

What this team really needs are role players. Time and again, opposing teams from all spectrums of the league’s talent levels were able to beat the Lakers as a result of their lack of talent beyond LA’s Big Three of Bryant, Bynum, and Gasol. Unfortunately, the Lakers do not have the financial flexibility capable of doing so, so again, they have to work with what they have.

The first thing this team should do is trade Pau Gasol. As a Laker fan, I’ve loved Pau ever since the Lakers stole him from Memphis back in 2008. Unfortunately, with the development of Bynum in the post, Pau has become expendable and is put out of place, as we all saw in the past two postseasons. I don’t want to see Pau go, but he is the only trade chip management is willing to deal. For who, I am not quite sure yet.

An asset the Lakers do have is the $8.9 million trade exception as a result of the Lamar Odom trade. This could be used to acquire any number of players in a package deal, or via a sign-and-trade with another team. The most important thing for this team to do is bring back talent to fill out the roster, not just a superstar trio.

Happy Memorial Day: A Look At The Greatest Soldier/Baller Ever

Elgin Baylor averaged an insane 38-19-5 in '61-62, but that was only half of the story.This is reprinted from last year's Memorial Day. Enjoy.

Back in 1961 when the NBA ranked in cultural importance somewhere around where MLS stood 15 years ago, Elgin Baylor, one of young league's greatest stars, was forced to complete his military duty during the season. He was an Army Reservist stationed in the state of Washington, living in barracks, eating military food, and definitely not living the ballin'est lifestyle.

Baylor still played during the 1961-62 season, however, saving up his weekend passes to fly coach to wherever the Lakers were appearing. He didn't practice with the team during the season; he simply suited up and played when he could, which was in 48 of LA's 80 games.

What the original high flyer did in those 48 is absolutely ridiculous. Baylor averaged 38 points, 19 rebounds, and 5 assists per. What he accomplished in 60 percent of a season was so impressive, it earned him a fourth-place finish in the MVP award during the most stat-happy season ever: that's the year Wilt averaged 50 and Oscar earned his triple-double (with the great Bill Russell taking home the award that season).

For comparison's sake, Chris Paul played in 55 percent of 2009-10's games, put up awesome numbers with virtually no help (19 points, 11 assists to only 2.5 turnovers, 2.1 steals, 49% FG, 41% 3FG, plus amazing defense) and he was not one of the 15 players to receive MVP votes.

What Baylor did was both statistically remarkable and conditionally super-human. Thank you to Elgin Baylor for your service and memories from that crazy season.

More importantly, thank you to all the troops who sacrifice so much personally for whatever greater good they serve, especially those who give their lives while doing so. Have a great Memorial Day everyone.

6 Things to Look Out for in the Conference Finals

Eastern Conference Finals: Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat

In the regular season, Boston won three out of four versus Miami, although the final game featuring the two teams—which Boston won 78-66—superstars LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Rajon Rondo, Kevin Garnett, and Ray Allen all sat out, and Paul Pierce only played 18 minutes.

Fortunately, the other three games tell us an important story. The Heat won the first game, 115-107, while Boston won the next two by scores of 91-72 and 115-107. In the three games in which the teams fielded full units, LeBron led all scorers between the two teams in points at 28.3 per game, Chris Bosh—whose timetable for return from an abdominal injury is unknown—led all rebounders at 10.3 per game, and Rajon Rondo led in assists at 13.7 per game, which leads to the first thing to look out for…

1) Who Will Guard Rajon Rondo?

Although Rondo is a superstar in his own right, he tends to get overlooked in favor of Pierce, Allen, and Garnett. With James and Wade in this story, Rondo becomes what many think as the sixth most important player in this series, which is five spots too low in my opinion. He makes the Celtics go, and when he gives the Celtics 20 points and 10 assists, Boston is a tough group to beat.

The league’s leader in assists at 11.7 per game, and arguably the best floor general in the Association today, has only stepped up his game in the postseason. During the regular season, Rondo averaged 11.9 points and 4.8 rebounds in addition to his assist total mentioned above, while shooting 45% from the field on 10.8 field goal attempts per game. In the playoffs, every single one of those numbers is up. Rondo is one of the ultimate competitors in this game, and that aspect of his game has shone brighter and brighter in each successive year of his career, especially the playoffs. In this postseason, Rondo leads all players with 12.5 assists per game, while scoring a clean 15 points per game and pulling in 6.4 rebounds each night. Most importantly, he is playing much more aggressively, taking 14.8 shots and shooting 45.4% from the field. Additionally, Rondo has posted three triple-doubles through his team’s first two rounds of playoff action.

What does all of this mean? It means Erik Spoelstra has one hell of a challenge in choosing who to guard Rondo. During the three games he played against the Heat, Rondo did whatever he wanted against Miami to the tune of 18.7 points per game on 51.3% shooting alongside 13.7 assists and 7.7 rebounds per game, and put together a masterful performance in the Celtics’ 91-72 victory during the regular season with a 22-point, 14-assist, 11-rebound triple-double. So, who guards him? When not at the small forward spot guarding Paul Pierce, LeBron James will need to guard the power forward spot when playing the four due to Bosh’s absence. Does Spoelstra risk taking Wade off Allen to guard Rondo, allowing the callow and undisciplined Mario Chalmers to tail the wizard of moving off the ball and coming off screens? How Spoelstra finds an answer to this question could very well determine how the entire series goes and if Miami gets another shot at the O’Brien trophy in June.

2) Who Will Step Up in the Frontcourt for Miami?

With Chris Bosh out for an indeterminable amount of time, the Heat are without their only legitimate frontcourt player. His absence certainly showed against the likes of the Pacers’ deep and talented frontcourt featuring Roy Hibbert and David West. If not for the superhero-like play from James and Wade, the Pacers could have taken that series if they capitalized on their huge frontcourt advantage against Miami.

Udonis Haslem, a veteran with playoff experience dating back to Miami’s championship run in 2006, will likely fill the starting power forward spot when he returns from his one-game suspension for a flagrant foul on Tyler Hansbrough. In Games 4 and 5 against Indiana, Haslem posted 14- and 10-point scoring nights, respectively, but is still only averaging 6.0 per game through the playoffs which isn’t enough to replace what Bosh contributed. Joel Anthony, the Heat’s starting center, should continue to play stalwart defense as he did against Hibbert but until he figures out how to catch the basketball on a consistent basis, he will be hopeless on the offensive end as his 3.9 points per game indicates, and leave Heat fans feeling the same. Beyond that, Spoelstra is out of options. Juwan Howard doesn’t play except in garbage time and cannot contribute any solid time off the bench, and the same for Dexter Pittman when he is eligible to play in Game 3 after receiving a three-game suspension for elbowing Lance Stephenson in the face in the waning moments of Game 5.

3) Doc Rivers vs. Erik Spoelstra

This is the series where Erik Spoelstra has a chance to prove his coaching mettle and dispel the notion that Pat Riley is the one who is truly in control of this team. Unfortunately, he is going up against a team coached by one of the league’s best, Doc Rivers. Each coach is a defensive wizard, as evidenced by the Celtics and Heat placing second and fourth, respectively, in points allowed per game at 89.3 and 92.5. Despite all the offense offered by these two teams, how the coaches manage their defensive assets against the opposition will set the tone for the series.

Prediction: Celtics in 6

Yes. It’s bold. Bolder than Taco Bell’s line of Bold & Creamy sauces. Which is almost as bold as it gets. But I think the Celtics can do it. In 6 games is the only way though, as I don’t believe they could close it out on the road in a Game 7 because god-forbid, the fans at American Airlines Arena might stay for the entire game and keep the energy in that building going for a Heat team whose two superstars are all about energy. With the experience Boston has, Rondo’s near-flawless floor-generalling, the defensive mentality to keep at the very least LeBron frustrated offensively—it wouldn’t be the first time—and stymie Wade for a few portions of games, and the huge advantage Boston has inside over what bodies Spoelstra throws out to watch Wade and James, I think Boston can do it.

Western Conference Finals: San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

In the Western Conference, everything has gone as predicted. No upsets have occurred, and the conference’s top two seeds are squaring off to take a shot at the title in a matchup the teams appeared destined upon since the beginning of the year. Both teams are very similar, from their superstar point guard/forward combos down to their left-handed sixth men who should not be sixth men. In the regular season, the two teams ranked nearly identical in points scored and allowed. Offensively, the Spurs ranked second at 103.7 per game, while the Thunder were third at 103.1 per game. Defensively, the Spurs ranked 16th at 96.5 points allowed per game and the Thunder cam in 17th at 96.9 points allowed per game.

In the three games played between the two teams this season, the Spurs won two games. Point guard Tony Parker led all players in scoring and assists between the three games at 23.3 points and 7.7 assists per game. Tim Duncan led the way in cleaning the glass, pulling down 13.7 rebounds per contest. For the Thunder, business went as usual with their Big Three of Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden combining to average 64.3 points per game in the three contests. So with all these points being scored…

1) Who Will Play Defense?

We’ve all heard the mantra that defense wins championships. And while everyone salivates over how many points will be scored and how fast the Spurs and Thunder are going to play, the team who can string together the most strong sequences of defense will win this series. In games like these, where either team can score 10 points in a single minute of play, a stretch of three or four minutes in which the opposition is held scoreless gives you a huge opportunity to build a lead or come back from one. We saw this firsthand when the Thunder went on devastating runs to come back and steal Games 2 and 4 from the Los Angeles Lakers in the second round. The Spurs have shown the same ability against better team offensively than the Lakers in their Staples Center co-tenants, the Clippers. In Game 3, the Spurs surmounted a 24 point deficit to come back and take a chokehold on the series at three games to zero.

At first glance, the Spurs may be the ones better prepared to do such a thing. Coach Gregg Popovich has his team more disciplined than anyone else, and has the assets to stop the Thunder from scoring for a few minutes. Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard are athletic perimeter defenders who can guard any of the outside spots, and Duncan, DeJuan Blair, Tiago Splitter, and Matt Bonner provide toughness on the inside. Parker and Ginobili are no slouches either. With the playoff experience the group has, and the premium on defense, I expect them to do such a thing as they did in the last round when ratcheted-up defensive unit prevented an explosive Clipper offense from scoring over 99 points in any game of the series.

But the Thunder can play some D, too. Westbrook is very athletic at the point guard spot and has a knack for capitalizing on steal opportunities. His length and speed pose quite a challenge for Parker. Harden and Durant have proved to be capable defenders as well, especially with Durant’s long arms and Harden’s speed and strength. Alongside Thabo Sefolosha, coach Scott Brooks can assign any one of them to shut down an opposing perimeter player. Inside is the Thunder’s biggest defensive strength. Serge Ibaka leads the playoffs in blocks at 3.67 per game after leading the league during the regular season in the category. Kendrick Perkins provides the toughness necessary in a playoff series and is regarded as the heart and soul of the Thunder defense. Off the bench, Nick Collison is a tough customer as well who can defend well and rebound. All of the group’s collective defensive work ethic was on prime display in limiting and sometimes nullifying the effectiveness of the Lakers’ duo of talented bigs, Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol.

2) Who Will Guard Kevin Durant?

With all the offense people are waiting for in this series, it seems no one is talking about this and I don’t know why. In the regular season, Durant averaged 22.7 points per game against the Spurs on 46.8% shooting. For the Spurs to win, they have to neutralize either Durant or the other two scorers Scott Brooks has at his disposal. If all three score 60-plus each night as they did against LA, the Spurs will have a lot on their hands.

3) Who Will Step Up for the Thunder?

I think it’s safe to count on the Big Three’s nearly cancelling each other out. Parker/Duncan/Ginobili against Westbrook/Durant/Harden will most likely end up a wash nearly every time. Fortunately for the Spurs, they have enough depth to stay on track for victory, which tilts the series in their favor immensely. With the league’s highest-scoring bench featuring players like Stephen Jackson and Blair, the Spurs have many a player to put the ball in the basket other than Parker, Duncan, and Ginobili.

On the other hand, the Thunder really do not. Even if San Antonio can only hold one of Westbrook, Durant, or Harden in check, that leaves a lot of points that some other players will need to score. After the Big Three, Oklahoma City only has one other player who scored more than six points per game—Serge Ibaka at 9.1 per game. But that still won’t be enough. Derek Fisher will make a few jump shots, and Perkins will put a few missed shots back, but if anyone besides Westbrook, Harden, and Durant scores more than ten points in any game I will be surprised.

Pick: San Antonio in 7

I do not think either team will lose at home during this season. So it should go the distance. This series will be by far the best one we have seen this postseason, and most likely will decide who wins the O’Brien Trophy against an old Boston team or a thin Heat unit.

The Spurs and Thunder have a lot of offensive firepower between the two, but the difference between the two teams is the San Antonio’s comes from many places while Oklahoma City’s comes from three. The Spurs’ offense is like a game of Whack-A-Mole—you might stop one source of the scoring, but another one will soon pop, and then another and another until the defense is overwhelmed. If San Antonio holds any one of Westbrook, Durant, or Harden in check—with in check meaning holding that player to around 15 points on 15 shots or so—that will neutralize roughly 10% of Oklahoma City’s offensive output, and the Thunder don’t have many options to compensate for the Spurs taking away one of their primary options, as they really have no viable secondary options. Plus, you can never forget about the experience of Popovich, Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili. Experience will not win you ballgames, but it sure as hell hopes in the playoffs.

The 2 Biggest Things We've Learned In Round Two: Western Conference

No matter what you may have heard before the playoffs, the Spurs certainly aren't slowing down.So far in this year’s rendition of the NBA Playoffs, the events have proceeded as projected in the Western Conference. The top-seeded San Antonio Spurs and second-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder blew their first round matchups out of the water with sweeps. The Spurs’ was to be expected, but the Thunder’s exercise in revenge at the expense of the defending champion Dallas Mavericks was one we saw coming, but not to the tune of the Mavs leaving the postseason without a single victory.

And now, fresh off another sweep of the Los Angeles Clippers, the San Antonio Spurs look toward their presumable matchup against the Thunder once Oklahoma City dots the I’s and crosses the T’s against the Los Angeles Lakers which the Thunder lead 3-1.

That being said, the playoffs in the Western Conference have, for the most part, affirmed pre-existing notions that were in place when the playoffs began a little over three weeks ago. But that is not to say that we have learned a few things, since we have. Most importantly, we have learned…

1. Kobe Bryant is no longer the league’s best closer. Kevin Durant is the league’s best closer.

In Games 2 and 4, the two contests in the series when the Thunder had to play well to win, they came back from deficits of 7 points in each game to take late leads and win each ballgame. Although Game 3 was also within reach, the game turned into a free throw contest that favored the Lakers.

In all sincerity, the Los Angeles Lakers are roughly three minutes of gameplay from leading this series 3-1 as it goes back to Oklahoma City, where the Thunder will likely end the series. But the reason the Thunder lead 3-1 instead of the Lakers is the 6’11” guy who plays for the Thunder. Each game presented an interesting dichotomy between the Association’s top two scorers during the regular season.

In Game 2, the man thought to be the best closer let a game slip out of his team’ fingers, a game that would’ve shifted home court advantage and given momentum to the team with the second-best home record in the league. After allowing James Harden to score on a lay-up, Kobe then turned the ball over when he attempted to inbound the ball OVER Kevin Durant’s arms. That’s right…supposedly one of the league’s smartest players tried to pass the ball over a guy whose wingspan surpasses seven feet. That turnover resulted in a dunk by Durant, and it was all downhill from there. Bryant was blocked by Harden on his next shot attempt and badly missed an

open look at a three which would’ve put LA up two with 36 seconds remaining. Instead, Durant scored on the next play and the Thunder finished off a 9-0 run spanning the game’s final two minutes and eight seconds to win 77-75.

In Game 4, Los Angeles held a 92-78 lead with 7:45 left on the clock. Then, Durant led the Thunder back from a 13-point deficit alongside point guard Russell Westbrook who finished the game with 37 points. This contrasts starkly to Bryant, who tried to do it all in the last eight minutes of the game despite the Lakers dominating in the paint for most of the game. In the same eight minutes the Thunder outscored the Lakers 25-8, Kobe went one for eight in the quarter, scoring only 5 points in his return from the bench. You can’t help but think it might have helped if someone else could have shot the ball, especially closer to the basket.

2. The Spurs are not slowing down.

Through 8 games, the Spurs have not lost in the playoffs. As a matter of fact, the San Antonio Spurs have not lost in over a month as result of an 18-game winning streak dating back to April 12. The average margin of victory so far in these playoffs for the Spurs is 13.5, with the highlights being a 31-point rout of the Utah Jazz in Round 1 and surmounting a 24-point deficit in Game 3 against the Clippers to win by 10 points, 96-86. In four of the eight games played Tony Parker has led the game in scoring and is averaging 19.4 points per game in the postseason to lead the team, alongside 7.4 assists.

The part of this team that has Spurs fans most excited is the play of Tim Duncan. The Big Fundamental leads the team in rebounding at 9 per game, and is the second-leading scorer for the Spurs at 17.4 points per game. On the defensive side, Duncan has done a magnificent job limiting the efforts of talented, much-younger bigs such as Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, DeAndre Jordan, and most notably, Blake Griffin.

In tandem with the old guard of Parker, Duncan, and Manu Ginobili, the youth of the Spurs is also stepping up. Starting shooting guard Daniel Green is the team’s fourth-leading scorer at 9.9 points per game, but his value lies in his contributions defending the basket as he has been tasked with, and succeeded at, guarding prolific scorers on the perimeter like Devin Harris, Caron Butler, Mo Williams, and even Chris Paul at times. Alongside Green, Kawhi Leonard is also stepping his game up, averaging 9.0 points and 5.1 rebounds as the other starter on the perimeter. Leonard has turned in multiple double-digit scoring nights in the postseason thus far, but like Green, his value lies mostly on the defensive end as evidenced by his team-leading 1.6 steals per game.

With the experience, youth, and depth, the Spurs still look to be the prohibitive favorite despite continuing to fly under the radar while the young and more exciting Thunder receive the bulk of the press. But at the end of the Western Conference Finals, and most likely the NBA Finals, everyone will be talking about the Spurs.

6 Things We've Learned So Far in Round 2: Eastern Conference

Recent-ish injuries to Ray Allen and Paul Pierce have been more of a concern for the C's than most fans originally anticipated going into the Philly series.

Boston Celtics vs. Philadelphia 76ers (Series tied 2-2)

1. Everyone already knows that Kevin Garnett is the key to the Celtics’ defense. But recently, he’s become the indicator for whether Boston is going to have success on the offensive end as well. Boston is 3-2 in its last five games, dating back to Game 6 of the Atlanta series. In those three wins, KG has averaged 28 ppg on 61% shooting (34-for-56). In the two losses, he’s averaged just 12 ppg on 42% shooting (10-for-24). The most obvious reason for this disparity is that teams are more likely to win when one of their players has a big game. This seems simple, but when doing a stats in wins vs. stats in losses analysis, the fact that almost every player is likely to have better stats in wins than in losses is often overlooked.

More importantly, though, KG’s performance tells us several things about the Celtics’ offense. Boston relies on KG to use his superior length to hit midrange jump shots. When KG’s jumper isn’t falling, it can often spell doom for the Celtics because Boston has one guy that can consistently attack the rim in Paul Pierce (Rajon Rondo can do this as well, but I’m not going to include him because he has a tendency to avoid going to the basket late in games). Like any player, Garnett has hot and cold shooting nights, but one of the reasons that KG has been emblematic of the Celtics’ offense is because when Boston is getting a lot of penetration, KG has more space to shoot, resulting in a higher field goal percentage.

There is another reason that KG has had poor numbers in the Celtics’ two losses to the Sixers: he’s old. Garnett just turned 36 on Saturday, and while he and the Celtics are still very consistent night-to-night on the defensive end, KG, 34-year-old Paul Pierce and 36-year-old Ray Allen are incapable of carrying the team every single night. Garnett and Pierce are still at the point where they can play three elite offensive games per series, but when one (or both) of them are in a funk, the younger Celtics like Rajon Rondo and Brandon Bass have to be able to replace those lost points.

2. Injuries have been the story of the postseason in the Eastern Conference, and it is injuries, more than any team, represent the Celtics’ obstacle to reaching the NBA Finals. Paul Pierce is playing with a sprained MCL. Avery Bradley dislocated his shoulder in Game 3 against Atlanta, and hasn’t been the same since. Aggravating the injury in Game 4 against Philadelphia certainly didn’t help. But no Celtic has been affected more than Ray Allen, who has struggled mightily with an ankle injury. After missing the first two games of the first round, Allen has averaged just 11 ppg and shot 45% from the field, including just 29% from three. Not only that, but Allen, a career 89% FT shooter, is just 12-for-20 (60%) from the charity stripe in the playoffs. For years, Allen has made his game off of dashing around screens to get open for threes. When you’re hobbled by a bum ankle, that’s suddenly a lot harder to do. With a fully-healthy squad, I’d like Boston over Philly, Indiana and probably even Miami at this point. But right now, the Celtics are too hobbled to close out series quickly, meaning that they have to keep playing high-intensity games, further aggravating their injuries. Even if they emerge from the East, is there any way that they’ll be healthy enough in three weeks to pose any kind of threat to the Spurs or Thunder?

3. Philadelphia has shot marginally better than it did against Chicago in Round One, averaging 41% FG through four games against Boston. Yet even though Philly has yet to outshoot Boston (the two teams were an identical 36-for-82 in Game 1), they’ve compensated by getting to the line far more frequently than the Celtics. In Philadelphia’s Game 4 win, they got to the line 36 times compared to Boston’s 19, and the main reason Philadelphia was able to come back in the second half is because they suddenly stopped shooting bricks from the free throw line (13-for-21 in the first half vs. 12-for-15 in the second). In the Sixers’ other win, Game 2, Philly shot 21 free throws compared to just 9 for Boston. I know the officiating’s not perfect, but 9 free throw attempts? For the Sixers to win the series, they need to continue drawing fouls on offense, because they’re not going to outshoot the Celtics—Boston’s defense is just too good for that.

Miami Heat vs. Indiana Pacers (Series tied 2-2)

1. Anyone who thought the Pacers were going to go away quietly was sorely mistaken. Make no mistake, folks: this is a series. Indiana looked great in a Game 3 blowout victory, and could well have been headed to Miami with a 3-1 lead if LeBron James and Dwyane Wade hadn’t outscored the Pacers 28-16 in the third quarter of Game 4 (I don’t know what’s more ridiculous about that game: LeBron’s 40-18-9 line or Wade’s 11 straight made field goals). So what can we learn from Game 4? First, if Indiana can play in a game in which James and Wade combine for 70 points, 27 rebounds and 15 assists and still keep it close in the end, it bodes very well for their chances in the final three games (since the chances of James and Wade both having huge games more than a couple times in a series are pretty slim). Second, and most important, Game 4 confirmed just how little support Miami has behind James and Wade (and how much they miss Chris Bosh, who, while not on the level of the Heat’s top two, is still a viable offensive threat). Shane Battier, Ronny Turiaf and Mario Chalmers, the Heat’s other Game 4 starters, combined for just 11 points on 4-for-16 shooting. Obviously, it would have been foolish for them to get in the way of James or Wade when they’ve got it going, but 11 combined points from three starters doesn’t exactly leave you brimming with confidence if you’re a Miami fan. Of course, I’ve been talking about the negatives—it can’t be forgotten how truly phenomenal James and Wade did play in the second half of Game 4.

2. Could it be possible that Indiana’s supporting cast is just as bad as Miami's? I don’t think so. But the plus/minus numbers tell another story. Through the first four games of the series, only two Indiana bench players have posted a positive plus/minus in any game: Dahntay Jones and and Jeff Pendergraph, who were on the court for a combined 10 minutes in the game they did it, a blowout Indiana win in Game 3. Obviously, plus/minus isn’t everything, but it has to be a bit jarring for the Pacers to see that they’re giving up points every time their bench players take the floor (it doesn’t help that LeBron James never takes a breather—he’s averaging 43 minutes per game this series). I still think that Indy’s bench has value—especially Darren Collison, who I highlighted a week ago, and who had 16 points on 6-for-7 shooting off the bench in 20 minutes in Game 4—but perhaps we ought to give their starting five a little more credit.

3. I brought it up in the last point, but it bears repeating: LeBron James is averaging 43 minutes per game against Indiana. That’s up from 38 mpg in the regular season, and at a higher intensity to boot. Now LeBron is a physical freak, and the players have more rest between games than in the regular season…but perhaps the reason LeBron is tentative late in games is that he’s tired. After all, LeBron led the NBA in playoff minutes last season (44 per game, a minute more per game than anyone who made it out of the first round). There’s a reason all players don’t play 44 minutes per game: it’s really freaking hard. Add in the fact that LeBron plays world-class defense and also spends a good chunk of possessions acting as the Heat’s point guard/creator on offense, and it should make sense that he’s tired at the end of games. I’m not going to come out and say that’s why LeBron’s less assertive down the stretch (even if you’re tired, there’s no excuse for disappearing the way he did in the Finals last year), but it’s something to consider when evaluating LeBron’s performance late in games.

There’s Always Next Year: Eastern Conference

Stop making decisions, Michael. Just stop it.Here’s a breakdown of the seven Eastern Conference non-playoff teams on the outside looking in, and what type of outlook for next year they each have.

Brooklyn Nets (22-44)

The Hope: If Deron Williams stays, the Nets retain one of the game’s best PG’s; if he signs elsewhere, the Nets will have a huge amount of cap space to sign free agents. The move to Brooklyn brings the most “cool new location” buzz the league has experienced since the Lakers landed in LA in 1960. Owner Mikhail Prokhorov will certainly shell out the dough to try to bring free agents to town. Retaining Brook Lopez will work out well if he returns to form both health-wise and rebounding-wise. Anthony Morrow is one of the NBA’s elite 3-point bombers and they should have the inside track on keeping Kris Humphries, an elite rebounder.  
But Don’t Forget: GM Billy King is widely considered one of the worst in the business (of all time), so he’s probably not the guy who should be making decisions at this important juncture. The Nets will definitely chase a lot of the wrong players with way too much money, which will only set them back further for future development (remember Travis Outlaw?). Not only did they trade away what’s likely to be the #6 pick in this loaded draft for nothing, but they also traded away their early-second round pick, so the one chance they got in this draft is at #57 overall (from Miami). It has to be concerning that Lopez is coming off an injury-ravaged, 5-game season, and his rebounding and shot blocking have been steadily getting worse, so he’s probably not the cornerstone they hope he is.

Charlotte Bobcats (7-59)

The Hope: For as raw as rookie PF/C Bismack Biyombo was, he proved himself to be a very good rebounder and outstanding shot blocker. Rookie G Kemba Walker looked to be a quite capable passer when he focused on setting others up and not his own scoring. In theory, it will be next to impossible for the Bobcats not to improve. D.J. Augustin remains an incredibly efficient passer and decent 3-point shooter. Charlotte has some cap space to pursue free agents. Obviously they’ll have a very high draft selection.
But Don’t Forget: Michael Jordan still runs this show, which means it’s entirely possible they somehow don’t improve next year. If Patrick Ewing is actually considered for Charlotte’s next coach, then it’s clear they’re not serious about rebuilding things correctly/intelligently. The Bobcats only have a 25% chance of getting the top pick in the draft, so anything less than that could very well result in Andre Drummond or Perry Jones, either of whom will be linked to MJ in the same way Kwame Brown and Adam Morrison currently are. Based on their recent track record of losing/trading decent players they could have retained (Tyson Chandler, Gerald Wallace, Raymond Felton, Stephen Jackson, Boris Diaw, etc.), expect Augustin to soon end up on another franchise and have a great rest of his career. Walker is not a PG and has always been an extremely inefficient scorer. Almost everything about this team sucks, and it can’t be reiterated enough how much damage Jordan has done and will continue to do to the only franchise in the league that I honestly believe is losing money for its owner, which will continue a cycle of not spending enough (or smartly enough) in order to ever change things.

Cleveland Cavaliers (21-45)

The Hope: Owner Dan Gilbert is always thinking big, which is an infectious mindset that’s helpful for a struggling franchise. Kyrie Irving is a great, young PG to build around, especially if he gets his turnovers under control. Fellow rookie Tristan Thompson showed some positive signs and looks like a keeper. Anderson Varejao continues to bring the energy and skills to be an extremely underrated frontcourt piece for a franchise. Cleveland has a ton of cash sitting around to sign free agents. In addition to a likely top-3 draft pick this summer, the Cavs also control the Lakers’ pick (#24 overall), the Hornets’  second rounder (#33 overall), and their own second rounder (#34 overall), a nice little cluster to work with in terms of finding some inexpensive talent in a deep draft like this one.
But Don’t Forget: Cleveland won’t attract any good free agents for a variety of reasons. Varejao has battled a slew of injuries the past two seasons (he’s played 56 total games during that span), and Irving’s health looks to be on the Derrick Rose fast track. There isn’t much other talent on this franchise, so it will take a complete rebuild before they approach .500 again. Irving does look to be particularly turnover prone, a bad sign for the guy who’s supposed to make the entire team’s offense gel, plus the coach was none too impressed with the rookie’s defense throughout the season. Gilbert appears to be a little crazy at times, so keep an eye on how that manifests itself.

Can Greg Monroe improve enough to overcome the continued negative influence of GM Joe Dumars upon Detroit's roster?Detroit Pistons (25-41)

The Hope: Greg Monroe has very quickly transformed himself into one of the most legit and durable centers in the center-deficient NBA. Amnesty-ing Ben Gordon or Charlie Villanueva should free up a few bucks to play with in free agency. Jonas Jerebko still has promise due to well-rounded skills and feistiness, Rodney Stuckey is sort of a Tyreke Evans-lite, Gordon is still a decent gunner (if he’s not amnestied), and Brandon Knight is a young rookie the fans still believe in. Obviously they’ll have a decent first round pick (around #9) and what could be a good value pick near the top of the second round (#39 overall).
But Don’t Forget: Other than Monroe, most of the talent worth mentioning (which isn’t much) on Detroit is really just C/C+ players occasionally masquerading as something more; you can’t build a winner around that “core.” Speaking of which, the Pistons haven’t done much of any constructive franchise building for years, so there’s not a lot of reason to think it will start happening now. If they whiff with their first round pick and poorly spend what little free agent money they have (both fall between ‘quite possible’ and ‘very probable’ on the likelihood spectrum), expect another season of 25-30 win basketball.

Milwaukee Bucks (31-35)

The Hope: By trading former #1 overall pick Andrew Bogut, the Bucks showed they’re willing to shake things up in an attempt to get out of their perpetual flirting-with-the-playoffs-while-battling-injuries funk. The trade netted them Ekpe Udoh, one of the most unexplainably valuable players in the entire league (for two consecutive seasons, he’s had really high Plus/Minus values while being surrounded by tons of teammates way in the negative – no one else comes close to matching his discrepancy). Luc Mbah a Moute continues to be one of the most underrated players in the league, and possibly the NBA’s most versatile defender, while G/F Mike Dunleavy continues to get it (very loosely defined in this case, but some version of ‘it’ none the less) done. Young big men Jon Brockman, Larry Sanders, and Jon Leuer are probably the best and most versatile $4 million worth of frontcourt backups you can buy. Monta Ellis provides some wow factor to a team with just about none of it. Hello, Ersan Ilyasova!
But Don’t Forget: Fans hate the team’s defense under coach Scott Skiles, plus they feel that bringing back GM John Hammond is a sign that ownership is OK with mediocrity; no argument here. Brandon Jennings and Ellis don’t make a good backcourt on either end of the court for a lot of reasons, but the franchise is obviously committed to them. As seems to always be the case with the Bucks, they will have an OK-ish draft pick and an OK-ish amount of cap room available, but no one is expecting much to come from either. After a decade of continually being close to make the playoffs or barely making them and then losing in Round One, it’s become expected that injuries will strike them and they’ll repeat the same old sub-par mess again; hope is slowly being crushed from this fanbase.

Toronto Raptors (23-43)

The Hope: If healthy, it’s entirely possible that PF Andrea Bargnani, PG Jose Calderon, and C Jonas Valanciunas (#5 pick last summer) could be the league’s most underrated “Big Three” in the league in 2012-13; they could quickly lead a Raptors turnaround that finally lands them in the post-season. James Johnson, Amir Johnson, and Ed Davis are a decent (but unspectacular) trio of big men who provide plenty of defense, decent rebounding, and fairly efficient scoring when operating next to Bargnani. Although Linas Kleiza and DeMar DeRozan no longer look like they’re going to break into stardom, both can get hot from the wing. Toronto certainly has some money to spend on free agents. Coach Dwane Casey and GM Bryan Colangelo are the right pair to move this franchise forward.
But Don’t Forget: The Raptors desperately need some wings who can score efficiently, especially ones who can hit 3’s and open up the inside for Bargnani and Valanciunas. Bargnani’s health is a lingering concern that could continue to derail Toronto’s success. Most of the guys on the team who like to take shots need to learn to take smart shots. This “individual talent on the verge of gelling” routine has been going on in Toronto for a while and has never materialized.

Washington Wizards (20-46)

The Hope: Nene brought a steadying influence to the frontcourt when he showed up in March. The Wizards finished on a 6-game win streak (including twice over Miami), so the fan base has some optimism going into the summer. John Wall has the athleticism to someday improve his game to the level a #1 pick should be at, and young big men Trevor Booker, Jan Vesely, Kevin Seraphin, and Chris Singleton all displayed enough flashes this year to make you think something good could happen there. A top draft pick (likely #2) and top second-round pick (#32 overall) could both yield potential building blocks. Assuming Rashard Lewis’ $24 million 2012-13 salary is bought out, they’ll have some cap space to pursue free agents.
But Don’t Forget: Wall displayed no improvement from his rookie season at all, which is particularly troubling when one considers how inefficient and unpolished his game is and the extreme lack of team success he’s ever been part of (high school, college, pro, Team USA). There are plenty of ways for the Wizards to go wrong with their top pick (if it’s not #1 overall) and their cap space, always a possibility considering their recent track record. Andray Blatche is not a building block by any stretch of the imagination, and the fact the front office isn’t aware of this tells you Washington could have problems assembling a winning squad.

10 Notes, Facts, Figures, and Match-ups Worth Paying Attention To In The Western Conference Semifinals

How OKC's Serge Ibaka, Kendrick Perkins, and other big men deal with LA's Bynum and Gasol will be instrumental in this series.1. Lakers Big Three: Against the Thunder, Kobe Bryant performed the worst against the Northwest Division champs. Although he averaged 24.3 points in the series, he shot 30.7% from the field scored a total of 73 points on 75 shots. When your total amount of points is less than the shots you take, that is a bad sign. Matching up again with Thabo Sefolosha, who has been successful defending Bryant in the past, expect more of the same quantity-over-quality performances from Kobe. In this series, the Lakers’ best option is to force the issue inside by feeding Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum. Gasol averaged 18.3 points and 9.9 rebounds in the series, and shot the ball well at 46.5%. Bynum also played well, averaging 16.3 points with 11 rebounds per game, shooting 44% himself.

2. Lakers Bench: Simply put, the Lakers bench this season has been horrible as the second unit finished last in the league in scoring at just 21.2 points per game and an overall differential of -9 points per game. Against Sixth Man of the Year James Harden and the rest of the Thunder’s second unit, the Laker reserves need to step up. Jordan Hill has been the only bright spot off the pine in these playoffs, as Josh McRoberts and Troy Murphy are yet to see time on the floor. Meanwhile Steve Blake and Matt Barnes also have underperformed against the Nuggets high-octane second unit that could be a precursor to the success, or lack thereof, the Lakers will have against the Thunder.

3. Thunder Big Men: For the Thunder to assert dominance over the Lakers truly, the interior fortification must hold up against Bynum, Gasol, and the rebounding of Hill. Tasked with that role will be Serge Ibaka, Kendrick Perkins, and Nick Collison. With the success Gasol and Bynum had against the Thunder this season, Scott Brooks’ bigs need to step up and prevent either player from going off in the paint.

4. Derek Fisher: For the first time in his career, Fish will face the Lakers in the playoffs wearing a uniform other than the purple and gold. Since the Thunder acquired him, Fisher has been the next option off the bench after James Harden. What Fisher brings to the table is not only his ability to hit big shots, but also the knowledge of the Lakers’ schemes and tendencies he will impart to the Thunder, especially on Bryant, Gasol, and Bynum.

5. Thunder Bench: Obviously Harden will lead the reserves with his average of 18.3 points per game, but how will the rest of the Thunder’s bench perform? The Thunder’s second unit ranked 16th in scoring at 31.7 points per game, but played well defensively as they posted an overall differential of +4.1 points per game while on the floor. Ensuring the Lakers do not go on any extended scoring runs will be paramount to the Thunder taking the series when Kevin Durant and/or Russell Westbrook take a breather.

6. Dueling Dynamic Duos: The headline matchup here is between Tony Parker/Tim Duncan and Chris Paul/Blake Griffin. Between the two games Parker did play, his defense on Paul resulted in CP3 shooting 9/29 in the two games and had a net plus/minus rating of -37. To contrast, in the game Parker missed, Paul scored 36 points on 12/20 shooting, dished out 11 assists, and had a plus/minus of +14. In the post, Griffin and Duncan are the two players many look forward to seeing square off. In the season series, Griffin outplayed Duncan in each game, averaging 20.7 points and 12.7 rebounds per game, featuring a 22 point, 20 rebound performance in the meeting in February. Duncan on the other hand averaged only 12.7 points and 9.7 rebounds in the series. These numbers are decent enough, but not substantial enough to counter what Griffin will do.

It's not often that a match-up of reserves like Manu Ginobili vs Nick Young is so imprtant in a series.

7. Manu Ginobili vs. Nick Young: Against the Clippers this season, Ginobili proved to be a difference-maker, averaging 16 points per game. In Game 1 of the series, in a starting role, Ginobili scored 24 points, and 22 in the final meeting off the bench. An outlier here is the two points Ginobili scored in February when he played 18 minutes off the bench and took only three shots. Nick Young, a mid-season acquisition of the Clippers, will hope to counter Ginobili’s scoring prowess. So far in these playoffs, Young has proven he can do that, most notably with his 19-point performance in the Clippers’ 24-point comeback victory against the Memphis Grizzlies in Game 1.

8. Battle of the Benches: Manu vs. Young is only the tip of the iceberg in what will decide whether the series goes seven games or just five—maybe even four. San Antonio’s bench was the best in the league this year, averaging 42.1 points per game and the highest differential of any second unit in the league at +14.7. With DeJuan Blair, Matt Bonner, Stephen Jackson, Gary Neal, and Manu provide Head Coach of the Year Gregg Popovich with an array of weapons to fortify the team when the starters take a rest. Clippers coach Vinny Del Negro also has some weapons at his disposal with the veteran experience of Kenyon Martin, speed of Eric Bledsoe, rebounding/toughness of Reggie Evans, and the scoring of Mo Williams.

9. Rested or Rusty?: It will be interesting to see how the Spurs have maintained their level of preparation in the lull they have enjoyed between the end of their series and the start of their new one against the Clippers. Especially against a team that plays fast under the direction of CP3, the Spurs will need to be sharp from the get-go.

10. Veteran savvy vs. Inexperience: Beyond the experience of players like Chris Paul, Kenyon Martin, and Mo Williams, most of the players on the Clippers have little to no experience in the playoffs. The Spurs on the other hand also have some very inexperienced players on their roster in terms of playoff service, but also have the elder statesmen of Parker, Ginobili, and Duncan who have won three rings together to guide the youngsters through their first playoff run.

Predictions: Oklahoma City over Lakers in 5, San Antonio over Clippers in 5

5 Notes, Facts, Figures, and Match-ups Worth Paying Attention To In The Eastern Conference Playoffs

Indiana's back-up PG Darren Collison was phenomenal in Round One and should get more minutes against the Heat in Round Two. *** Note to Frank Vogel: Play Darren Collison more! Collison averaged only 19 minutes per game in Indiana’s five-game win over Orlando, but he still managed to put up some of the playoffs’ most impressive numbers. The 6-foot point guard shot 54% for the series (including a fantastic 61% True Shooting and 59% eFG), tallied eight steals and, perhaps most impressively, dished out 23 assists to just one turnover. Collison’s offensive rating for the series was off the charts at 144; his defensive rating was a very impressive 92. Collison started the first 56 games of the season before he had to sit for a few games towards the end of the season due to a groin injury. Beginning on April 9, George Hill took over the starting PG spot, and even when Collison returned on April 16, Vogel kept Hill as the starter. Hill has played well in that span, and so have the Pacers (11-3 since Hill took over), but giving one of the playoffs’ most efficient players just 19 minutes per game doesn’t make much sense.

*** Philadelphia shot really, really poorly in their series against Chicago. The Sixers rank 12th among playoff teams in field goal percentage (the four teams behind them have all been eliminated) and 15th in three-point shooting (an ugly 25%). In fact, the only game in which Philadelphia shot better than 40% in the six-game series was a Game 2 blowout. Obviously, some credit has to go to the Bulls’ defense, which finished the regular season as the league’s No. 2 unit in points/possession. The question is, will the Sixers fare any better against the No. 1 team in that category, the Celtics—who just so happen to be the Sixers’ opponents in the second round? Doug Collins can spin the first round as a positive in that the Sixers were able to win ugly when their shots weren’t falling, but Philly will struggle against Boston if their shooting woes continue. Boston has more options on offense than Chicago—if Philly can’t pick it up, they won’t be able to hang around in games like they did against the Bulls.

*** In both the Indiana-Miami series and the Boston-Philadelphia series, people are going to be more focused on what’s happening when the starters are in—it’s only natural. But the bench matchups are important, particularly in the Indiana-Miami series, as dominating Heat’s second unit may be the best way for the Pacers to engineer an upset. Indiana’s point guard tandem presents a problem for Miami, because the Heat only use one point guard (Mario Chalmers). Chalmers, who played the second-most minutes on the Heat in round one, is going to get tired chasing Collison and Hill around. And when Chalmers (or Dwyane Wade) is off the floor, Frank Vogel could really shake things up by playing Collison and Hill together. That would give the Pacers a distinct speed advantage and wreak havoc with Miami’s defensive assignments. Apart from Chalmers and Wade, LeBron James is the only guy fast enough to defend Collison or Hill, but that would mean taking him off his man (probably Danny Granger), creating a mismatch at another position for the Pacers. For an underdog to win, it has to take the favorite out of its comfort zone. Playing Collison and Hill together would do that.

*** The bench matchup in the Boston-Philadelphia series also bears watching. At the beginning of the season, this would have been a huge advantage for the Sixers. Their bench was a huge part of their 18-7 start, while the Celtics had pretty much no idea who was going to be on their playoff rotation outside of the Big Four and Brandon Bass. Things have changed, though. Philly still has a good second unit, but the Sixers had a very uneven second half of the season, while the emergence of Avery Bradley allowed Ray Allen to come off the bench for the Celtics. Behind that, Mickael Pietrus is playoff-proven, and Greg Stiemsma (somehow) is a competent backup big man, though he has no offensive game to speak of. Behind Thaddeus Young and Lou Williams, Philly’s bench is still better, but Boston’s bench is no longer something that could lose them the series, impressive for how cobbled together it is.

Not to alarm anyone, but if you claim to have known 5 months ago that Greg Stiesma (54) would be an important consideration for an NBA opponent in Round Two of the playoffs, your pants are on fire.Let me expand on that last point. I’m sure Danny Ainge did his scouting on these guys, but even he has to be surprised at how his bench turned out this season. Here’s a look at the players who have played (but didn’t start) at least three playoff games this season.

1. Ray Allen: Future Hall-of-Famer. NBA’s all-time leader in made three-pointers. Owner of one of the purest jump shots in the world. Has been with the Celtics since 2007.
2. Mickael Pietrus: Waived by the Suns three days before the season started. Signed by Boston the day before the season started.
3. Greg Stiemsma: Played four years at Wisconsin but didn’t average more than 10 minutes per game until his senior season (16 mpg). Undrafted in 2008. Spent last season playing in Turkey after stints in the D-League and South Korea. Began this year with the Sioux Falls Skyforce of the D-League before the Celtics signed him less than a week before the season started.
4. Keyon Dooling: Acquired on December 9 from Milwaukee in exchange for a second-round pick and the rights to Albert Miralles (drafted in 2004). The Celtics are his sixth NBA team.
5. Marquis Daniels: Signed a one-year deal on December 9. Daniels was traded from Boston to Sacramento midway through last season, but he never played a game for the Kings.
6. Ryan Hollins: Released by the Cavaliers on March 20. Signed by Boston on March 23. Has played for five teams in six NBA seasons.

And the reason that Allen’s coming off the bench is because a second-year player who averaged five minutes a game last season took his starting spot. Now that is a patchwork bench.

*** LeBron James has taken flak for his failing late in playoff games, but what about late in playoff series? The last seven series that James’ team has won all lasted five games or fewer, dating back to 2008. The last four series James’ team has lost all lasted six games or more (James is 0-2 during his career in Game 7s). Obviously, you can’t say that it’s entirely James’ fault that his teams have failed in close series (especially the 2009 Conference Finals against the Magic, when James was outstanding). But it is interesting that his teams have had such an easy time of it when they’re clearly the better team and have struggled when the two teams’ talent levels are closer.

Predictions: Miami over Indiana in 5, Boston over Philadelphia in 7

There’s Always Next Year: Western Conference

Golden State PG Charles Jenkins showed a lot of good things in his rookie season. Was it enough to make fans think the future includes a trip to the playoffs?Here’s a breakdown of the seven Western Conference non-playoff teams on the outside looking in, and what type of outlook for next year they each have.

Golden State Warriors (23-43)

The Hope: First and foremost, Monta Ellis had to be dealt for the Warriors to move forward, and if Andrew Bogut ever gets healthy, they might have pulled off one hell of a franchise-advancing deal. David Lee absolutely continues to get it done. Rookie Klay Thompson proved himself to be the 3-point sharpshooter he was drafted to be, and rookie second-rounder Charles Jenkins is well on his way to becoming the next uber-efficient-yet-severely-underrated-for-years PG in the Sessions/Calderon mold. Brandon Rush finally resembles the role-playing scorer he was intended to be. They continue to shoot 3’s at a crazy good rate (38.8%). Through trades, they hold the 30^th and 35^th picks in the draft, two positions that could yield good value in this deep crop of incoming talent.
But Don’t Forget: Mark Jackson is a terrible coach who promised playoffs and an improved defense (which shouldn’t have been hard after they finished 26^th in that category in ’10-11), but they failed on both counts (27^th). Golden State purposefully tanked down the stretch with no chance of even finishing in the bottom-3, which says a lot about the organization’s character. No one would be surprised to hear doctors say that Bogut and Stephen Curry will never be fully healthy again. They have a lot of money wrapped up in bad contracts that aren’t going anywhere (Jefferson, Biedrins, Bogut if he keeps getting injured), and there’s no chance they’re landing a good free agent this summer. The Warriors have plenty of defensive and rebounding issues that will certainly prevent their improvement; on a related note, why’d they allow Ekpe Udoh to be included in that trade?

Houston Rockets (34-32)

The Hope: The Rockets hold the Knicks’ first round draft pick, meaning Houston is likely selecting 14^th and 16^th overall in a deep draft. Kyle Lowry played like an MVP candidate for the first half of the season before getting hurt; he returns. Luis Scola, Kevin Martin, Patrick Patterson, and Chase Budinger all add known value to the Rockets moving forward. Second-round rookie Chandler Parsons and career back-up PG Goran Dragic both far exceeded expectations this season, and the club would be wise to re-sign both. GM Daryl Morey will certainly find something interesting to do with the massive disparity that currently exists between their committed payroll and the salary cap.
But Don’t Forget: As Morey enters his 6^th year as Houston’s GM, it’s becoming clear that he can work with very little to consistently make Houston into a 5^th-to-9^th place sort of club, but he’s certainly not in R.C. Buford (Spurs’ GM) territory when it comes to making something out of nothing (late draft picks, trades that go unnoticed). Houston was pretty much average at everything this past season, so it’s hard to pinpoint any one area that could help pull them out of the 52% winning percentage playoff-limbo they’ve been stuck in for three straight years. Scola is starting to show his age. Are you really expecting Houston to come up with a free agent coup that makes a true difference next year?

Minnesota Timberwolves (26-40)

The Hope: A healthy Kevin Love, Ricky Rubio, and Nikola Pekovic are a talented, young trio to build around that has all sorts of potential. Rookie F Derrick Williams showed some good flashes before hitting the rookie wall. J.J. Barea is a very good back-up PG, and I personally believe SF Wesley Johnson can still become an above-average role player. Minnesota has tons of financial flexibility over the next two seasons.
But Don’t Forget: The Timberwolves have the worst owner-GM pair in the league with asshole extraordinaire Glen Taylor and lobotomy survivor David Kahn running this thing, so don’t expect anything noteworthy and positive to happen in MN in the offseason. Because of past trades, they’re picking 18^th in the draft instead of 10^th, plus they lost their early-second round pick (where there’s often a lot of inexpensive value in deep drafts like this one). As much as everyone remembers that the Wolves were a possible playoff-bound club and super fun to watch before Rubio tore his ACL on March 9, it’s also worth remembering that they were 21-21 at that point, so it’s not like their three big talents had Minny looking like the ’09-10 Thunder (50-32) or anything. The team’s defense has a monumental amount of work to do (especially in the paint) if they want to take a real leap forward, but the presence of non-shot blockers Love and Pekovic at the 4 and 5 kinda prevents this from becoming part of the team identity.

New owner on the left: yes please. Old owner on the right: good riddance.New Orleans Hornets (21-45)

The Hope: Fans are excited about the new owner (anyone’s gotta be better than David Stern), landing the 2014 All-Star Game, and having two lottery picks (likely 4^th and 10^th overall). In addition, they’ve committed very little money toward next year’s payroll, so there’s plenty available to re-sign Eric Gordon and to hopefully attract some free agents to go with him and the two top draft picks. Jarrett Jack and many other role players all showed fight and some value during this season that was decimated by injuries. Considering how extraordinarily injured the club was, how tough their schedule was (especially in the first half of the season when morale got crushed), and how close they were in a lot of their losses, the Hornets really aren’t anything like the Bobcats or Wizards, and should have a much easier time improving. Gustavo Ayon.
But Don’t Forget: Gordon is the only proven starter worth building around, but he’s coming off a terrible knee injury and isn’t exactly an All-Star even when fully healthy. Emeka Okafor’s knee might get him amnestied, so the Hornets need to figure out how to keep their defense together if he, Chris Kaman, and Carl Landry are all indeed gone. The offense has no identity at all and has to be assembled from square one. Despite having all the financial room in the world to sign free agents, this isn’t a great year for free agency and New Orleans doesn’t have any inroads with anyone of note, so expect them to overspend or underwhelm.

Phoenix Suns (33-33)

The Hope: The Suns have a league-leading $23 million in cap space, and we keep hearing all the right rhetoric about Phoenix and unrestricted free agent Steve Nash staying together. Assuming they match any offer Robin Lopez receives, the Suns retain a versatile and fairly solid frontcourt in Marcin Gortat, Channing Frye, Lopez, Markieff Morris, Jared Dudley, Josh Childress, and Hakim Warrick (that’s the entire list of who they have signed for next year, by the way), so they still have the bigs for the run-and-gun style.
But Don’t Forget: Robert Sarver is the cheapest owner in the league, and there are already indications that Phoenix won’t utilize their tremendous cap space. As great as he still is at orchestrating so-so teammates into a very good offense, Nash is playing on borrowed time and would be wise to avoid re-signing here if the club isn’t committed to getting him above-average teammates. What exactly will happen to their offense if the Suns don’t reconfigure their backcourt properly? (Aaron Brooks?) Gortat is the only big man worth a damn on the glass which is why Phoenix is one of the league’s worst rebounding clubs. Their first round draft pick (likely 13^th overall) is the only selection they hold in a summer of desperate rebuilding, so it’s all or nothing for them in a position that’s historically been a crapshoot at best.

Will owner Paul Allen and the Trail Blazers ever settle on a plan that properly fits their team?Portland Trail Blazers (28-38)

The Hope: The Blazers have a lot of money available to chase free agents this summer, plus they hold two lottery picks (likely 6^th and 11^th overall) in a draft that’s considered very strong, so they can do a lot of franchise building in just about any direction they choose to go. Assuming Portland matches whatever offers are thrown Nicolas Batum’s way, their 2-3-4 spots are solid and locked in (Matthews-Batum-Aldridge). Their rabid fanbase might be the league’s best, which certainly makes an impact on free agent signings and general team morale. J.J. Hickson was great down the stretch in Aldridge’s absence and should definitely be brought back.
But Don’t Forget: Good luck figuring out if they have any coherent plan because it certainly doesn’t look like it, and they’re still searching for a non-interim GM and coach to hopefully/supposedly help shape that plan. Many fans think owner Paul Allen is both a) a giant front office-wrecking control freak, and b) angling to sell the franchise, which would reset the whole plan thing. Fans are also starting to realize there’s a good reason Aldridge was considered the Bosh-esque third wheel in the Roy-Oden-Aldridge Big Three that was supposed to be the future of this franchise. There’s an excellent chance Portland will overpay/over-reach on at least one free agent and completely botch at least one of the lottery picks (it’s this simple: take UNC’s Zeller and Marshall to intelligently fill the C and PG positions for years). Again, they’ve needed a GM for a year now.

Sacramento Kings (22-44)

The Hope: Second-year big man DeMarcus Cousins proved to be one of the league’s elite rebounders, Marcus Thornton continues to be a surprisingly strong scorer, and Tyreke Evans had a much more consistent season than last year. Rookie PG Isaiah Thomas far outperformed the expectations of a 60^th overall selection (which some pundits predicted). Keith Smart definitely seems like he could be a decent coach in the NBA. They got plenty of cash to throw around in the offseason.
But Don’t Forget: Oh dear goodness, where to begin? The owners are obviously screwing around with the city of Sacramento and the fanbase, so the future of this franchise could be completely shaken up in a variety of ways, none of which figure to be positive. Cousins is still the league’s biggest headcase (at a minimum in the top-3), so there’s 0% chance they can build a winning club around him. Evans is turning out to not be that guy either, with three consecutive seasons of 29-33% team winning with no real upswing in sight as evidence. Jimmer Fredette was an instantly panned lottery pick who didn’t exhibit the production or improvement to suggest he’s part of any long-term solution. There are plenty of ways to go wrong with the 5^th overall selection in this draft, plus very few free agents of note want to join the Kings in Sac-town or wherever else they might land.

Non-Stars Stepping Up: Eastern Conference

Mario Chalmers (left) and Jeff Teague certainly aren't the players you'd expect to make major impacts for Miami and Atlanta in the post-season, but they are.You've already been paying attention to how LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Rajon Rondo have been affecting the Eastern Conference playoffs. Here's a look at four lesser discussed players who have stepped it up so far and deserve a little more credit for what their teams have done.

Mario Chalmers

PG, Miami Heat
Everyone knows the deal with Miami—if LeBron James and Dwyane Wade both play great, Miami wins. But if one of them isn’t great, it means that some of those other guys have to step up. The Heat’s supporting pieces have taken some flak over the past two seasons—and for good reason—but Chalmers has been more reliable as the team’s starting point guard this season, starting all but two regular season games. Chalmers has been even better in the postseason, as he’s done very little to hurt Miami while contributing in a number of areas. Even in Chalmers’ worst game of the series, an 89-87 Heat loss in Game 4, he still managed to be the only Miami starter with a positive plus-minus, going +13 in 38 minutes on the court. Chalmers’ finest performance came in Game 3 in New York, where the Knicks entered the fourth quarter trailing by just two. Chalmers hit a pair of huge three-pointers on back-to-back possessions midway through the quarter to push a nine point lead to fifteen, and New York never threatened again. The fourth-year guard finished Game 3 with 19 points, 7 rebounds. and 3 steals on 7-for-11 shooting (5-for-8 on threes) along with a team-high +28. Chalmers has also done a great job limiting turnovers, averaging just two per game for the series. Even though he won’t be taking the big shot (as he did in the 2008 NCAA title game for Kansas), if Chalmers continues to produce, the Heat will like their chances to win it all come June.

Jeff Teague

PG, Atlanta Hawks
On a team short of scoring options (seriously, who’s scoring for Atlanta apart from Joe Johnson and Josh Smith?), Teague has emerged as a decent third scorer for the Hawks this season. After spending his first two seasons coming off the bench, Teague took over a starting job that was split between Mike Bibby and Kirk Hinrich last season and made it his own. Kevin Garnett may have called him a “nobody” back in March, but he probably knows who Teague is now, especially after Teague’s 23-point, 6 assist, 2 block performance in a 90-84 OT win for the Celtics in Game 3. Like Chalmers, Teague has done a good job limiting turnovers (he’s averaging less than two per game for the series and handles the ball more frequently than Chalmers) and he attacks the rim well for a guy his size (6-foot-2). Teague (and every other Hawk) has had problems dealing with Rajon Rondo in this series, but if he was the Atlanta’s third option on offense instead of its fourth (moment of silence for Al Horford), the Hawks, not the Celtics, could easily be the ones holding a 3-1 lead.

Spencer Hawes

Center, Philadelphia 76ers
Hawes played sparingly in the Sixers’ first two games in Chicago, logging just 33 minutes combined as the squads split the two contests. But Hawes started Games 3 and 4, both Philly wins, and impressed with the added run. Hawes has been a starter in the league for a while now (he’d started at least 50 games in each of the past three seasons before injuries limited him to just 29 starts in this lockout-shortened season), but he’s a fairly forgettable guy, so casual NBA fans might not be too familiar with him. In fact, I was watching Game 3 with one such “casual fan,” and he asked me, “Who’s that guy? Is he new?” despite the fact that Hawes has been in the league since 2007. The point is that most people wouldn’t point to Spencer Hawes as a potential key factor to a playoff series. In Game 3, Hawes had a game-high 21 points and was a game-high +11; he also grabbed 9 rebounds and made all six of his free throw attempts. Hawes was the best player on the court in Game 4 (team-high 22 points on 9-for-11 shooting, 8 rebounds, 3 blocks and even a three-pointer for good measure) and with Joakim Noah out for Game 5, you’ve got to think Doug Collins will keep going to his seven-footer in the paint. Hawes will be tested with a second-round matchup with Boston looming, but there’s no doubt that he’s one of the main reasons that Philly is on the brink of pulling an 8-seed-over-1-seed upset (obviously Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah being hurt helps too).

Roy Hibbert

Center, Indiana Pacers
Hibbert was an All-Star this year, so it’s hard to argue that he’s overlooked, but when you ask someone who the Pacers’ best player is, you usually get a blank stare. Through the first four games of the playoffs, though, there’s been no doubt—it’s Hibbert. His worst shooting night of the series (Game 1, 3-for-11) coincided with just 77 points and a loss for Indiana—they’ve scored at least 93 in their three wins since then. Even so, Hibbert still kept the Pacers in the game, grabbing 13 rebounds and swatting an absurd 9 shots. Hibbert grabbed another 13 boards (5 offensive) in a Game 2 win before the Pacers finally figured out that Orlando doesn’t have a center on their roster and it might make sense to feed the 7-foot-2 guy in the post. He was 8-for-10 from the field with 18 points, 10 boards (5 offensive), and 3 blocks in a Game 3 blowout and posted a similar line in Game 4 (5-for-7, 14 points, 11 boards, 3 blocks) before fouling out in Indiana’s overtime win. Hibbert is great at crashing the boards on either end because he’s a nightmare to rebound against—there just aren’t that many 7-foot-2 guys in the league. When you add in the fact that Hibbert’s post game has continued to develop (it was really raw coming out of college at Georgetown [Ed. note: I honestly expected Hibbert to be a Thabeet-esque washout]), Hibbert is showing that he is well-deserving of that All-Star nod.