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Sunday
Mar182012

The Performances of Potential Lottery Picks in the NCAA Tournament

Kansas' Thomas Robinson (0) is far and away the best pure PF in the upcoming draft.

Anthony Davis

C/PF, Kentucky, Freshman
Draft Expectation: #1 overall pick
General Outlook: correct draft position for a defensive superstar who rebounds well and has superb shot selection
Tournament: 16 pts (5/8 FG), 9 reb, 7 blocks, 3 ast (0 tov), 1 steal, 36 mins [W vs. West. Kentucky]
15 pts (4/9 FG), 12 reb (4 off), 2 blocks, 5 ast (3 tov), 40 mins [W vs. Iowa St]

 

Thomas Robinson

PF, Kansas, Junior
Draft Expectation: #2-4
General Outlook: should be 2nd or 3rd pick – outstanding rebounder whose strength and energy make him a great PF prospect, especially with his emerging interior scoring
Tournament: 16 pts (7/13 FG), 13 reb, 2 ast (3 tov), 1 steal, 27 minute [W vs. Detroit]
11 pts (2/12 FG), 13 rebs (5 off), 3 ast (2 tov), 2 steals, 1 block [W vs. Purdue]

 

Andre Drummond

C, UConn, Freshman
Draft Expectation: #2-4
General Outlook: severely overrated – great combo of size/athleticism is overshadowed by lackadaisical attitude that causes him to disappear for long stretches of games and the season
Tournament: 2 pts (1/4 FG), 3 reb, 4 blocks, 1 steal, 5 fouls, 26 minutes [L vs. Iowa St]

 

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

SF, Kentucky, Freshman
Draft Expectation: #2-7
General Outlook: should be top-5 pick – plays an extremely versatile and valuable game built around his athleticism, defense, and all-out hustle that often doesn't translate into big stats
Tournament: 9 pts (4/8 FG), 7 reb, 2 ast (2 tov), 1 block, 34 mins [W vs. West. Kentucky]
2 pts (1/4 FG), 7 reb, 1 ast (2 tov), 33 mins [W vs. Iowa St]

 

Harrison Barnes

SF, North Carolina, Sophomore
Draft Expectation: #3-6
General Outlook: overrated – is a good catch-and-shoot scorer and defender, but that's about it, which is not how you spend a top-10 pick in this draft
Tournament: 14 pts (5/12 FG, 1/3 3FG), 6 reb, 0 ast (2 tov), 3 steals, 33 mins [W vs. Vermont]
17 pts (7/19 FG, 3/6 3FG), 5 rebs, 0 ast (1 tov), 1 steal, 31 mins [W vs. Creighton]

 

Jared Sullinger

PF, Ohio St, Sophomore
Draft Expectation: #5-7
General Outlook: might be slightly overrated – obviously a good scorer and rebounder, but he regressed in some areas from last year, and there are lingering questions about his health and his potential/drive against talented bigs
Tournament: 12 pts (4/14 FG), 11 reb, 6 blocks, 2 ast (1 tov), 32 mins [W vs. Loyola]

18 pts (5/9 FG, 2/2 3FG), 4 rebs, 1 steal, 26 mins [W vs. Gonzaga]

 

Baylor's Perry Jones and Quincy Miller are two of the least productive, least consistent players expected to go in the 2012 Draft lottery. It is not a stretch to say they're only the 4th and 5th most important players to the Bears' success.

Perry Jones

PF, Baylor, Sophomore
Draft Expectation: #7-10
General Outlook: severely overrated – his freakish athleticism will make him a top pick, but his production is underwhelming in all areas, especially against good competition
Tournament: 2 pts (1/6 FG), 11 reb, 1ast (2 tov), 33 mins [W vs. SD St]
7 pts (3/8 FG), 3 reb, 1 ast (0 tov), 27 mins [W vs. Colorado]

Bradley Beal

SG, Florida, Freshman
Draft Expectation: #8-12
General Outlook: overrated – virtually every part of his game is underdeveloped and needs more time, except for his rebounding - I like his long-term prospects, but his development may suffer if he leaves now
Tournament: 14 pts (5/8 FG, 1/4 3FG), 11 reb, 1 ast (2 tov), 1 steal, 32 mins [W vs. Virginia]
14 pts (4/8 FG, 2/5 3FG), 9 reb, 3 ast (4 tov), 2 steals, 31 mins [W vs. Norfolk St]

 

Jeremy Lamb

SG, Uconn, Sophomore
Draft Expectation: #9-13
General Outlook: overrated – he's a gunner who can get hot, but he's much better suited in a supporting role and his value in that capacity at the next level is not a sure thing
Tournament: 19 pts (6/15 FG, 2/6 3FG), 4 reb, 0 ast (2 tov), 2 steals, 39 minutes [L vs. Iowa St]

 

Terrence Jones

PF/SF, Kentucky, Sophomore
Draft Expectation: #9-15
General Outlook: overrated – uses his natural gifts to coast too much, often making lazy and stupid decisions – imagine a less-skilled, equally unmotivated/frustrating Derrick Coleman
Tournament: 22 pts (9/13 FG), 10 rebs, 2 ast (1 tov), 1 steal, 35 mins [W vs. West. Kentucky]
8 pts (3/9 FG), 11 rebs (4 off), 2 blocks, 1 steal, 3 ast (1 tov), 33 mins [W vs. Iowa St]

 

If a franchise walks away from the draft with both Tyler Zeller (44) and Kendall Marshall (5), they did a masterful job getting 2 of the top 5 players without using a top-5 pick. Tyler Zeller

C, North Carolina, Senior
Draft Expectation: #10-15
General Outlook: underrated – an extremely consistent center who makes his shots, is a strong rebounder, and is always in the right position on defense shouldn't drop this far (ex: Brook Lopez in '08)
Tournament: 17 pts (4/9 FG, 9/10 FT), 15 rebs (6 off), 4 blocks, 1 steal, 2 ast (3 tov), 29 mins [W vs. Vermont]
11 pts (4/7 FG), 6 rebs, 1 block, 25 mins [W vs. Creighton]

 

Damian Lillard

PG, Weber St, Junior
Draft Expectation: #10-15
General Outlook: overrated – very effective shooter and all-around scorer, but he's also 6-feet-2 with no real PG instincts and regularly disappears against large-school opponents (red flag) - could work in perfect situation
Tournament: 21 pts (8/16 FG, 2/7 3FG), 5 ast (2 tov), 2 stls, 33 mins [W vs. Utah Valley in CIT]

 

John Henson

PF, North Carolina, Junior
Draft Expectation: #8-18
General Outlook: underrated – very consistent and strong rebounder, elite shot blocker, and generally smart shot maker (although not great)
Tournament: sidelined with sore left wrist vs. Vermont
13 pts (5/13 FG), 10 rebs, 4 blocks, 2 ast (1 tov), 1 steal, 28 mins [W vs. Creighton]

 

Quincy Miller

SF, Baylor, Freshman
Draft Expectation: #13-16
General Outlook: overrated – his focus, energy, and overall production have been inconsistent and generally underwhelming, plus his skills/fundamentals are lacking in a variety of ways
Tournament: 10 pts (4/9 FG), 4 rebs, 1 ast (0 tov), 1 block, 21 mins [W vs. SD St]
8 pts (3/9 FG), 5 rebs, 2 blocks, 1 steal, 1 ast (2 tov), 23 mins [W vs. Colorado]

 

Kendall Marshall

PG, North Carolina, Sophomore
Draft Expectation: #13-20
General Outlook: severely underrated – great game controller who brings amazing value to his team's offense, plus his scoring (esp. clutch) has picked up significantly toward the end of the season
Tournament: 11 pts (5/7 FG), 10 ast (3 tov), 2 reb, 1 steal, 31 mins [W vs. Vermont]
18 pts (7/8 FG, 1/2 3FG), 11 ast (4 tov), 4 reb, 36 mins [W vs. Creighton]

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    Response: Woorden met Q
    [...]The Performances of Potential Lottery Picks in the NCAA Tournament - Behind the Basket - The Antidote for Conventional Wisdom[...]
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    Football is seriously 1 of the most significant sports in America. It has a important following.

Reader Comments (3)

Tar Heel bias much?

March 28, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterDon

minus Barnes - which is tough to argue against given how much his game dropped after kendall went down (from what was already a disappointing year)

March 28, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterDon

@Don
Thanks for the comments. Trust me, I definitely don't have a Tar Hell bias, but they have 2 of the 5 best prospects, and Henson should be a top-10. If you can name 5 players in this draft who will be more valuable pros than Marshall and Zeller, I'd love to hear them because right now everyone has too much of a boner for "athletic freaks with lots of potential" to think straight.

March 30, 2012 | Registered CommenterZachariah Blott

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